Iraq, Mexico and Afghanistan: Lost War?

PORTFOLIOS

* Who wins?: MANUFACTURERS AND SELLERS OF ARMS AND AMMUNITION

* Fell into a trap the Calderon government?

* THE WAR AGAINST NARCO: LONG, futile and unpopular

OF JOSE A. PEREZ STUART

Years ago, newspaper readers in Mexico complained that because of the cheap ink acquired publishers for printing of newspapers, their hands were stained black. Today, however, many no longer want to buy and read newspapers because every day I see so many photographs of individuals, families and groups killed by drug traffickers, which the hands are stained with blood ...

Having lost the general elections last July, and cause his political party became a minority in Congress, having aproyarían voters believed the war that his government frees shot against drug gangs, Mexican President Felipe now Calderon appears to continue losing support:

1 .- Mexican bishops have publicly demanded an end to military involvement in these tasks.

2 .- Inhabitants of one of the states most affected by street killings among drug dealers, held a public demonstration to demand an end to military intervention, because of human rights violation committed.

3 .- Employers of the border did the same, arguing that elements of the army were charging them a kind of protection fee.

Those are the facts. Why should the failure of the government of Felipe Calderón in a shooting war that began in the state of Michoacan and has now spread throughout the Mexican territory? 

There are several reasons that lead to intelligence analysts to believe that Calderon fell into a trap:

A) The violence in the Mexican state of Michoacan, where Calderon was born indeed, was between gang members fighting for territorial control, both for marketing and for drug production. Calderon decided to intervene, immediately mixing the armed forces, in what appeared an attempt to strike a dramatic blow, ie to end the violence in that state immediately, with a striking armed operation. Calderon's government was being questioned at the time by the left, which accused him of illegitimate, and maybe close advisers to President advised him to take evasive lavish, which would legitimize to every nation, appearing determined, forceful, effective.

B) It was soon noticed that despite the spectacular military deployment, violence is not only kept in that state, but increased. The media and the general public began to doubt the effectiveness of the plan implemented.

C) As if that were not enough, media and Proceso magazine, also questioned one of the main drivers of the operation, the owner of the Federal Public Security Secretariat.

D) The increase in violence and questioning people about the effectiveness of government intervention in the armed cartels battle for control of territory, apparently led to elements of the military forces to play one of the most sensitive for drug: the detention of their relatives. A sort of unwritten code among international mafias seem to establish the covenant not to touch the families of the mafia. By doing in Mexico, the bands not only increased their armed actions, but extended to virtually the entire national territory and included as targets, police and military installations.

E) In addition, drug gangs began to settle deployed on the streets of different cities of Mexico, which accused government officials responsible for combating gangs, to benefit a particular group, to the detriment of all other .

F) The main complaint is that the band most benefited by the actions of some groups is official of Joaquin Guzman Loera (a) El Chapo, whose power would have been greatly strengthened since he escaped from a Mexican prison in the previous government.

G) reaches such a degree of estimation in some international intelligence circles that the biggest beneficiary is the group of El Chapo, even Forbes magazine has cited repeatedly latter, as one of the richest and most powerful men at internationally.

H) is also talk of the economic benefits that have special representatives of the manufacturers of weapons and ammunition which have been highly benefited by the sales they have made in Mexico over the past three years.

What can detach from the above?

1 .- What to Felipe Calderón allegedly led to believe that military intervention would be short and decisive.

2 .- Much like the Soviet Union in Afghanistan, and now in Afghanistan and Iraq itself, the Mexican army has been trapped in a long term war, and that like what happened to Soviet and American, becomes in a debilitating war, unpopular and extremely difficult to win because they face not a regular army, but scattered individuals and mixed companies like fish in water.

3 .- That the government has eroded in a pure war of bullets, but without being accompanied by a comprehensive, permanent, inter-and multidisciplinary, the consumption and production of narcotics.

4 .- That the government offices responsible for promoting social development, have failed to perform a task effectively, with the aim of finding alternative income honest, productive and rewarding for men and families of agriculture, who are inclined to participate with drug gangs, to cleave to economic resources and the prevalence of ineffective, outdated structure strengthened by the Cardenas Ejido.

Moreover, it is clear that guerrilla warfare, which seeks to make long and exhausting, is to discredit both the legally constituted government and its armed forces and in this sense, it is worth noting the role that seem to want play the liberation theologians, that the bishop of Saltillo, Raúl Vera ahead, while enshrining the former leader of the Mexican Electricians Union, also call for the withdrawal of the Mexican army on the streets. What is your real game?

perezstuart@gmail.com

* The first picture attached is El Chapo

* The second is from Raul Vera, another Marxist liberation theologian, Samuel Ruiz Garcia.